Disaster forecasting tools

Are there forecasting tools available to help me prepare for drought or other disasters? Information Knowledge Article. If you live in the West, yes. In the Western states, most precipitation arrives as snow. During winter months, NRCS hydrologists measure snow and forecast how much water will be available as snowmelt during warmer months.

This data is used for planning decisions by farmers, dam and reservoir operators, water managers, city planners, recreation enthusiasts, and many others. Related Information Title. URL Name. Related Articles What educational resources are available to help prepare my land for drought or other disasters? Volcano Disaster Assistance Program Toggle navigation. About VDAP. Monitoring Instruments Eruption Forecasts. Information Products. Example of an event-tree schematic used when forecasting the probable scenarios that may play out in the event of volcanic unrest or eruption.

Scenarios are updated as events unfold. Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia. This is imperative not only for day-to-day operations, but especially when preparing for and responding to natural disasters. For example, as hurricanes, fires, floods or other weather events approach a city, utilities can leverage their GIS to assess the risk to critical infrastructure and prepare for damage-related outages, as well as communicate with customers to help them prepare for extended outages and keep them informed on the progress of the restoration.

Service can be adjusted to avoid added risk from damaged assets. These shutoffs can be isolated to minimize the number of affected customers because of the accuracy of the database and advanced network analysis tools. Similarly, the real-time data allows the utility to know where it can quickly restore service or how to reroute services around damaged assets in the meantime to keep the lights, gas, internet, and water on.

The mapping and asset identification benefits of the GIS system are just as important after a disaster hits. For instance, if a plane or helicopter is surveying damage overhead and spots a downed utility pole, the GIS can tell the worker the size and type of the pole, what equipment is on it and how customers downstream may be affected by the damage.

This is powerful information for a utility working hard to reroute or reconfigure the network to get customers back online, or at least manage expectations as to when reliable power is running again. Enterprise GIS helps utilities prepare for and respond to major disasters by ensuring data is both highly accurate and easy to rapidly share.

This asset data is also important for damage assessment by helping to determine the amount of material lost and the associated cost. A utility can compare the needs to the materials it already has in stock to get things back up and running, or make a specific request of nearby utilities.

Enterprise GIS was a valuable resource to many utilities during the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, when millions of customers were left without power. Several utilities provided outage maps on their websites, and some even had them up and running before Sandy hit. This allowed their customers to prepare and plan for their expected days without service.

Many utilities, however, never provided this information and were criticized by the government and the public for being unprepared. A typical outage could be a hundred homes and a few thousand feet of main.

Here we were facing 30, homes and over miles of main. Without these tools to analyze and manage the restoration process, we could never have responded so quickly. Forecasting disaster Adequately preparing for a natural disaster is just as important as the response to it.

Utilities need to know where and when damaging weather conditions will impact their territory to execute a faster response to service interruptions.

The right forecasting service will provide reliable, precise weather data — including real-time lightning detection and customizable alerts — to help utilities prepare and restore power more quickly after a disaster. This helps utilities plan ahead, ensure enough crews are mobilized, and position them properly with equipment already set up and ready to respond to the predicted damage. For example, real-time, animated lightning strikes can pinpoint where assets may be in danger and instantly let operators know whether the strikes are intensifying or subsiding.

If the weather forecasting service has high-resolution, street-level mapping, it can work with the GIS system to provide the ultimate view of conditions and how the weather is affecting key infrastructure to help operators make better-informed decisions about response crews and operations. In the event of a natural disaster, such as a hurricane, a utility needs to have the best forecasting expertise at its fingertips to determine exact landfall location, expected precipitation, wind speeds, and more.

With a top-rated weather forecasting service, a utility may be able to procure the resources it needs more quickly, including mobilizing additional field crews and preparing surrounding utilities to help. The forecasting service should include long-range forecasts and hourly ones that include a confidence ranking to help operators prioritize resources for the response.